STRATEGIC THREAT? CHINA'S WELL PREPARED
(Straits Times 2005-02-26)

CHINA'S response to last week's joint United States-Japan statement, which declared Taiwan as a common security issue, has been to call on its military to make solid preparations to cope with any eventuality.

The order is said to have come from Chinese President Hu Jintao, also the country's top military chief, in response to the worsening strategic environment resulting from recent developments.

General Guo Boxiong, who is vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), conveyed Mr Hu's instruction to senior military officials, according to a report in Sun Daily, a pro-Beijing newspaper in Hong Kong.

Mr Hu is chairman of the CMC, China's top decision-making body on military affairs.

The US-Japan joint statement reflects the two countries' deepening suspicion about the imminent rise of China, which suggests that the latter's ascent would be paved with obstacles.

According to a source in Beijing however, China is not unduly worried about the military implications of the latest declaration. No surprise for Beijing WHEN the US and Japan signed a joint security treaty in 1960, China already knew then, and only too well, that they considered it a potential threat.

When the two countries strengthened their security alliance in 1996, China knew they considered Taiwan a security concern, even though Washington and Tokyo did not say so openly.

So Beijing has already factored these into its military preparations.

""Any war of unification would have to take into consideration joint US-Japan military intervention, not just in the Taiwan Strait area, but also deep in the Chinese hinterland,'' said the source.

""With Japan as a base, the US could stop Chinese troops from landing on Taiwan, or worse still, launch attacks on Chinese in dustrial-military complexes far in China's interior, and undermine Beijing's ability to sustain a war on Taiwan.

""It would be foolhardy and risky if these possibilities are not factored in,'' added the source, who requested anonymity.

Therefore, the joint declaration did not come as a surprise to the Chinese.

Still, there are three grave political implications for Beijing, according to the source.

First, the statement suggests that the US is bent on thwarting China's rise, if it is not on Washington's terms.

Of the 12 items listed in their ""common strategic objectives'' (CSO) in the region, three concern China. And the most provocative of the three is the reference to Taiwan for the first time.

Just two days before the announcement, Mr Douglas Feith, US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy, told the Council on Foreign Relations that China was one of the four key concerns of the US, the others being weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and failing states.

While the US would respect China's aspiration to achieve national greatness, this in turn would require Beijing to ""forgo the threat or use of force to pursue unification'', he said.

In other words, China's rise has to be in line with America's"" rules of the road''.

If not, Mr Feith warned, ""respect for sovereignty'' does not require the US ""to ignore the depredations of tyrannical regimes''.

A similar message was also sent by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld when he told the Senate Armed Services Committee on the same day that China's increasing military power was an issue the US"" thinks about and is concerned about and is attentive to''. Concern over Japan SECOND, the statement suggests that Japan has no qualms about confronting China head-on in their bilateral disputes.

Only a week earlier, Tokyo had announced its plan to take over the oil-rich Senkaku islands known to the Chinese as Diaoyu and had even mapped out a defence plan. It might have been emboldened to do this knowing it is backed by the joint defence alliance with the US.

By toeing the US military line unreservedly, Japan is confident of getting American backing to revise its pacifist Constitution,
which currently bars it from building up its military.

Beijing fears a gradual revival of militarism in Japan, which already has the world's second-largest military budget after the US.

Third, a US-Japan joint defence alliance that officially includes Taiwan within its ambit could, in fact, lead eventually to a formal US-Japan-Taiwan pact.

This is an arrangement the pro-independence government in Taiwan would be only too happy to be a part of.

It would certainly raise the island's international identity, but be a nightmare for Beijing.

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