CHINA'S response to last week's
joint United States-Japan statement, which declared
Taiwan as a common security issue, has been to call
on its military to make solid preparations to cope
with any eventuality.
The order is said to have come
from Chinese President Hu Jintao, also the country's
top military chief, in response to the worsening
strategic environment resulting from recent developments.
General Guo Boxiong, who is vice-chairman
of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC),
conveyed Mr Hu's instruction to senior military
officials, according to a report in Sun Daily,
a pro-Beijing newspaper in Hong Kong.
Mr Hu is chairman of the CMC,
China's top decision-making body on military affairs.
The US-Japan joint statement reflects
the two countries' deepening suspicion about the
imminent rise of China, which suggests that the
latter's ascent would be paved with obstacles.
According to a source in Beijing
however, China is not unduly worried about the
military implications of the latest declaration.
No surprise for Beijing WHEN the US and Japan signed
a joint security treaty in 1960, China already
knew then, and only too well, that they considered
it a potential threat.
When the two countries strengthened
their security alliance in 1996, China knew they
considered Taiwan a security concern, even though
Washington and Tokyo did not say so openly.
So Beijing has already factored
these into its military preparations.
""Any war of unification
would have to take into consideration joint US-Japan
military intervention, not just in the Taiwan Strait
area, but also deep in the Chinese hinterland,''
said the source.
""With Japan as a base,
the US could stop Chinese troops from landing on
Taiwan, or worse still, launch attacks on Chinese
in dustrial-military complexes far in China's interior,
and undermine Beijing's ability to sustain a war
on Taiwan.
""It would be foolhardy
and risky if these possibilities are not factored
in,'' added the source, who requested anonymity.
Therefore, the joint declaration
did not come as a surprise to the Chinese.
Still, there are three grave political
implications for Beijing, according to the source.
First, the statement suggests
that the US is bent on thwarting China's rise,
if it is not on Washington's terms.
Of the 12 items listed in their ""common
strategic objectives'' (CSO) in the region, three
concern China. And the most provocative of the
three is the reference to Taiwan for the first
time.
Just two days before the announcement,
Mr Douglas Feith, US Undersecretary of Defence
for Policy, told the Council on Foreign Relations
that China was one of the four key concerns of
the US, the others being weapons of mass destruction,
terrorism and failing states.
While the US would respect China's
aspiration to achieve national greatness, this
in turn would require Beijing to ""forgo
the threat or use of force to pursue unification'',
he said.
In other words, China's rise has
to be in line with America's"" rules
of the road''.
If not, Mr Feith warned, ""respect
for sovereignty'' does not require the US ""to
ignore the depredations of tyrannical regimes''.
A similar message was also sent
by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld when he
told the Senate Armed Services Committee on the
same day that China's increasing military power
was an issue the US"" thinks about and
is concerned about and is attentive to''. Concern
over Japan SECOND, the statement suggests that
Japan has no qualms about confronting China head-on
in their bilateral disputes.
Only a week earlier, Tokyo had
announced its plan to take over the oil-rich Senkaku
islands known to the Chinese as Diaoyu and had
even mapped out a defence plan. It might have been
emboldened to do this knowing it is backed by the
joint defence alliance with the US.
By toeing the US military line
unreservedly, Japan is confident of getting American
backing to revise its pacifist Constitution,
which currently bars it from building up its military.
Beijing fears a gradual revival
of militarism in Japan, which already has the world's
second-largest military budget after the US.
Third, a US-Japan joint defence
alliance that officially includes Taiwan within
its ambit could, in fact, lead eventually to a
formal US-Japan-Taiwan pact.
This is an arrangement the pro-independence
government in Taiwan would be only too happy to
be a part of.
It would certainly raise the island's
international identity, but be a nightmare for
Beijing.
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