BEIJING'S SECRET CROSS-STRAIT DIPLOMACY
(Straits Times 2004-01-21)

THE ""secret message'' which Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian claimed China passed to Taipei four years ago reminds people of a similar episode in the early 1990s when his predecessor Lee Teng-hui sent secret envoys to Beijing.

Although the background was different, one fact remains essentially the same: Any Taiwanese leader wishing to consolidate his grip on power has to have a conduit for dialogue with Beijing.

Like it or not, this is part of the geopolitical reality that Taiwan has to face up to.

On Sunday, President Chen disclosed that four years ago, when he was elected to the office, China sent a message to him saying that it believed people on both sides would be able to handle the one-China issue well and with mutual respect.

Mr Chen said he wove this into his inaugural speech with certain modifications. He did not offer more details, but according to a source with knowledge of the almost byzantine intricacies of cross-strait interaction, his claim should be credible.

The source recalled that soon after Mr Chen was elected, influential scholars and businessmen with good ties to authorities
on both sides had volunteered, out of genuine concern for cross-strait stability, to help bridge the information gap
separating Beijing and Taipei.

Not just messages from the mainland were passed on, but also some key points of Mr Chen's inaugural speech were shown to Beijing to gauge its reaction.

This had resulted in Beijing showing a measure of goodwill it would ""hear his words and watch his action'', it said during the initial years of Mr Chen's presidency.

The observation period lasted for three years, an indication that Beijing was indeed prepared to eschew hostility. But it came to an end when he announced in the middle of last year his timetable towards independence.

More than a decade ago, when Mr Lee came to power, Beijing had also sent goodwill messages to him, urging him to work towards national unification.

According to an envoy, Mr Nan Huaijin, a philosopher highly regarded by both sides, then Chinese President Yang Shangkun even persuaded the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) elders not to reject Mr Lee merely because he was a Taiwanese, and not a mainlander.

President Yang also expressed understanding about why Mr Lee could not move towards unification faster than he would like to, given the long years of anti-communist indoctrination by the KMT.

Beijing's faith in him came to an end when, in 1993, he likened himself to a latter-day Moses whose mission was to take the
Taiwanese out of China.

In both instances, Beijing's stance towards a new Taiwanese president was quite consistent.

First, it called upon the newly elected leader to uphold the"" one China'' principle and strive for unification.

Then it showed a willingness to give him the benefit of doubt and not reject him a priori. But in both cases, Messrs Lee and Chen let Beijing down, which accounts for the great mistrust now held against them.

President Chen's revelation about the secret message came at a time when cross-strait relations were at their lowest, no thanks to his bid to hold a ""defensive referendum'', which Beijing saw as setting the precedent for a future one on independence.

The heightened cross-strait tension which that move sparked has also led to huge international pressure on the Taiwanese leader not to rock the boat by trying to change Taiwan's political status.

All this could jeopardise his bid to win the presidential election scheduled for March 20. Given this backdrop, President Chen probably had two objectives in mind when he made the disclosure.

First, he wanted to show that he had responded to China's wish and that blame for the present impasse ought to be placed at Beijing's door.

Second, by signalling that he had a communication channel open to Beijing, he hoped to dispel fear that he lacked the necessary means to handle the delicate task of keeping up a dialogue with China.

It seems ironic that both Messrs Lee and Chen, who want so eagerly to break away from China, had to show off the olive branches that Beijing offered them to bolster their own political position.

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