Chinese President Hu Jintao, now
the undisputed No. 1 after military supremo Jiang
Zemin's retirement, is likely to adopt a more flexible
approach towards Taiwan.
The signs are that he favours
not rushing into a military showdown with separatists
though his preference for patience should not be
mistaken for weakness.
He will not hesitate to use force
if he senses that it is the only way to stop the
renegade province from heading for de jure
independence.
Mr Hu, 61, who is also the Chinese
Communist Party's general secretary, replaced Mr
Jiang as chairman of its Central Military Commission
(CMC) on Sept 19.
But even before that, he had called
an important meeting to work out a new approach
towards Taiwan. A source said on hindsight that
he was laying down his line.
According to Ta Kung Pao, a Hong
Kong-based pro-Beijing newspaper, the new approach
could be summarised this way China should strive
to resume stalled talks, be ready to fight but
does not mind waiting.
An observer said the last bit
was new and significant as in effect, it nullified
the 2020 deadline which Mr Jiang reportedly set
for reunification at a CMC meeting early this year.
By stressing China's willingness
to wait, Mr Hu's Taiwan policy is reminiscent of
that of Mao Zedong, China's first-generation leader.
The latter had told visiting United
States president Richard Nixon in 1972 that China
was willing to wait 100 years to solve the Taiwan
issue.
According to Ta Kung Pao, Beijing
will henceforth not deem any move by Taiwan to
delay talks indefinitely as being tantamount to
going independent.
It will also drop the stock phrase ""the
Taiwanese issue could not be delayed indefinitely''
in its pronouncements.
This latest stance seems at odds
with the position expounded in the February 2000
White Papers on Taiwan which outlined three scenarios
in which China would use force against Taiwan,
one of which is a delaying of talks by Taiwan indefinitely.
According to another source who
has knowledge of the working meeting, Mr Hu reportedly
explained that he was willing to wait until most
Taiwanese saw the advantages of unification.
In the meantime, he said, China
would focus on developing its economy and building
up its power both hard and soft.
But this readiness to wait turns
on the premise that Taiwan does not pursue de jure
independence. If it does, then Beijing is
duty-bound to use force, said the source.
The new-found patience should
go some way towards removing a cause for war. It
certainly is different from Mr Jiang's assessment
of the situation.
According to Lieutenant-General
Liu Yazhou, political commissar of the Air Force,
the ageing leader had said that war over Taiwan
was inevitable.
In line with the more flexible
approach, the national-level working conference
on Taiwan also decided that Beijing would no
longer target for punitive action the so-called ""green businessmen''
or ""green singers'' deemed to be pro-independence.
This is a major about-face because
soon after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was
re-elected on March 20, a spokesman for the central
government's Taiwan Affairs Office proclaimed openly
that China no longer welcomed those who made money
in the mainland but supported separatism in Taiwan.
Soon after the plenum, all officials
with special responsibility for Taiwan were summoned
to Beijing for a two-day session to be briefed
on the latest adjustments in Taiwan policy.
Mr Jia Qinglin, the No. 4 man,
also held a meeting of the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's
top advisory body, to brief its members on the
latest changes.
He told them that from now on,
Mr Hu's position on Taiwan would carry the same
weight as the doctrine developed by Mr Jiang and
the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.
While the President might want
more flexibility, it would be wrong to interpret
that as weakness.
His handling of civilian strife
in Tibet, where he was CCP secretary, in early
1989 showed his resolve and toughness.
He called in the army to suppress
civil disturbance in Lhasa.
It was this display of steel that
caught Deng's eyes and accounted for his meteoric
rise.
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