HU MAY BE MORE FLEXIBLE TOWARDS TAIWAN
(Straits Times 2004-10-02)

Chinese President Hu Jintao, now the undisputed No. 1 after military supremo Jiang Zemin's retirement, is likely to adopt a more flexible approach towards Taiwan.

The signs are that he favours not rushing into a military showdown with separatists though his preference for patience should not be mistaken for weakness.

He will not hesitate to use force if he senses that it is the only way to stop the renegade province from heading for de jure
independence.

Mr Hu, 61, who is also the Chinese Communist Party's general secretary, replaced Mr Jiang as chairman of its Central Military Commission (CMC) on Sept 19.

But even before that, he had called an important meeting to work out a new approach towards Taiwan. A source said on hindsight that he was laying down his line.

According to Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong-based pro-Beijing newspaper, the new approach could be summarised this way China should strive to resume stalled talks, be ready to fight but does not mind waiting.

An observer said the last bit was new and significant as in effect, it nullified the 2020 deadline which Mr Jiang reportedly set
for reunification at a CMC meeting early this year.

By stressing China's willingness to wait, Mr Hu's Taiwan policy is reminiscent of that of Mao Zedong, China's first-generation leader.

The latter had told visiting United States president Richard Nixon in 1972 that China was willing to wait 100 years to solve the Taiwan issue.

According to Ta Kung Pao, Beijing will henceforth not deem any move by Taiwan to delay talks indefinitely as being tantamount to going independent.

It will also drop the stock phrase ""the Taiwanese issue could not be delayed indefinitely'' in its pronouncements.

This latest stance seems at odds with the position expounded in the February 2000 White Papers on Taiwan which outlined three scenarios in which China would use force against Taiwan, one of which is a delaying of talks by Taiwan indefinitely.

According to another source who has knowledge of the working meeting, Mr Hu reportedly explained that he was willing to wait until most Taiwanese saw the advantages of unification.

In the meantime, he said, China would focus on developing its economy and building up its power both hard and soft.

But this readiness to wait turns on the premise that Taiwan does not pursue de jure independence. If it does, then Beijing is
duty-bound to use force, said the source.

The new-found patience should go some way towards removing a cause for war. It certainly is different from Mr Jiang's assessment of the situation.

According to Lieutenant-General Liu Yazhou, political commissar of the Air Force, the ageing leader had said that war over Taiwan was inevitable.

In line with the more flexible approach, the national-level working conference on Taiwan also decided that Beijing would no
longer target for punitive action the so-called ""green businessmen'' or ""green singers'' deemed to be pro-independence.

This is a major about-face because soon after Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was re-elected on March 20, a spokesman for the central government's Taiwan Affairs Office proclaimed openly that China no longer welcomed those who made money in the mainland but supported separatism in Taiwan.

Soon after the plenum, all officials with special responsibility for Taiwan were summoned to Beijing for a two-day session to be briefed on the latest adjustments in Taiwan policy.

Mr Jia Qinglin, the No. 4 man, also held a meeting of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country's top advisory body, to brief its members on the latest changes.

He told them that from now on, Mr Hu's position on Taiwan would carry the same weight as the doctrine developed by Mr Jiang and the late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.

While the President might want more flexibility, it would be wrong to interpret that as weakness.

His handling of civilian strife in Tibet, where he was CCP secretary, in early 1989 showed his resolve and toughness.

He called in the army to suppress civil disturbance in Lhasa.

It was this display of steel that caught Deng's eyes and accounted for his meteoric rise.

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