CHINA seems to be re-ordering its national goals by putting economic growth ahead of unification with Taiwan.

This should go a long way towards reducing tension across the Taiwan Strait.

The latest indication of a change in priority came when President Hu Jintao, in a meeting with a group of overseas Chinese in Brazil, said: ""Number one, we have to develop ourselves. Number two, we have to achieve unification.''

Rarely have these two goals been listed in this order. Some observers in Beijing read it as an important signal.

Mr Hu's remark tallies with a new guideline that emerged at the end of a National Conference on Taiwan held on Sept 24 which, according to the Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong-based pro-Beijing newspaper, said that China would ""strive for talks, be ready to fight, and won't mind waiting''.

A source with background knowledge of that meeting confirmed to The Straits Times that there was an adjustment in policy to help relieve the pressure on Beijing to achieve reunification by a certain deadline.

""But there are prerequisites for this policy to hold,'' he said.

According to the source, one of these is, as Mr Hu said at the September meeting, that Taiwan must not declare independence openly.

Another is that China must be totally ready to crush the separatist movement any time it needs to do so.

With these two prerequisites, China is willing to wait, and allow time to solve the problem.

The reason for this change in priority is that Mr Hu saw several favourable conditions that would allow China to adopt a more flexible and relaxed approach towards Taiwan, said the source.

First, the United States is more likely to fine-tune its ""one China'' policy in such a way that it will reduce the elb
ow room of the separatist movement in Taiwan.

This is because it sees greater strategic and economic value from a sound US-China relationship not soured by the Taiwan factor.

This assessment, made in September, seems to be borne out by subsequent developments.

First, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said last month in Beijing that Taiwan was not an independent country and hence did not enjoy sovereignty.

Though the US administration later ""clarified'' that there was no change in US policy, the message had already been delivered there was a tilt towards Beijing.

Second, the next few years would be critical to China's growth and so it should not miss the opportunity.

Currently, China is the sixth-largest economic entity in the world in terms of gross domestic product.

In two years, it will overtake Britain and become the fifth. In 10 years, it will become the world's third-largest economic power.

Mr Hu believes that greater economic clout would render unification easier and hence this growth trajectory should be
sustained for as long as possible.

Third, with steady growth in its composite national power, the military balance in the Taiwan Strait will shift in Beijing's
favour.

This will reduce the likelihood of Taiwan taking risky steps towards independence and of foreign powers intervening on its
behalf.

Fourth, social and economic exchanges across the Taiwan Strait will continue to grow and provide a strong deterrent against any risky steps towards independence.

Thus, the source said, Mr Hu had concluded that time was on Beijing's side and he could afford to wait and take a longer-term view.

If this reading of the latest developments is correct, then Mr Hu's Taiwan policy is discernibly different from that of his
predecessors Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping but similar to that of Mao Zedong.

China's first-generation leader Mao was in no hurry to solve the Taiwan issue. He told visiting US president Richard Nixon in 1972 that China could wait for 100 years to solve the problem.

Second-generation leader Deng wanted to see the problem resolved soon lest it would not be settled at all if leaders of his
generation on both sides of the strait died.

Hence he made unification one of three main tasks for the Chinese people in the 1980s.

Third-generation leader Jiang was the most impatient.

In a 2000 White Paper on Taiwan, China said that an indefinite delay by Taipei to come to the negotiating table would constitute a reason for using military action against it.

Early this year, at a meeting of the ruling Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission, Mr Jiang also indicated that he wanted to achieve unification by the year 2020.

Since then, there has been talk of devising a National Unification Law to speed up the process.

But now Mr Hu wants to remove the time factor from the policy calculus.

By doing so, he gives peace a greater chance.

With this policy adjustment, it now seems that the region could be spared a major calamity unless Taiwan is bent on daring China to use force by announcing de jure independence in the period 2006 to 2008.