IS THERE any political force still capable of reining in the rampant development of separatism in Taiwan? Saturday's legislative elections will provide some clues.

The 225-seat lawmaking body is, after all, the final institutional hurdle for President Chen Shui-bian's pro-independence
moves.

He has deemed the polls crucial to removing obstacles to his lurch towards separatism.

So, when Taiwanese voters go to the polls this weekend, they will not just elect a new legislature they will also indicate their
preference for separatism or cordial cross-strait ties.

Mr Chen hopes his Democratic Progressive Party will secure a legislative majority of 113 seats with help from his Pan-Green ally, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).

Currently, the Pan-Blue coalition, which supports the status quo and comprises mainly the Kuomintang and People First Party, holds 115 seats. The pro-separation Pan-Green camp has 100 seats, and the remaining 10 seats are held by independents with no party affiliation.

If Mr Chen gets his way, one of the first things he would do is to have the legislature remove all the stringent restrictions in the referendum law.

This would let him stick to his timetable of holding a referendum to decide on a new Constitution in 2006 and implement it in 2008.

Beijing considers this as his timetable towards formal independence.

The Pan-Blue controlled legislature imposed strict conditions when it passed the referendum law in November last year to prevent Mr Chen from invoking it freely.

The law not only sets a very high threshold for the initiation of a referendum it must first be signed by 5 per cent of voters but
also specifically prohibits referenda being held on sovereignty issues in Taiwan, namely to change the island's name, flag or territorial status.

Besides amending the referendum law, a Pan-Green majority legislature would also give Mr Chen a louder voice in any talks with China.

""Come 2005, you'll see increasing American pressure on us to talk with China, but I cannot talk with confidence unless I am sure that the legislature is solidly behind me,'' he said.

American and Chinese observers have different views on the significance of Saturday's polls, due to their different levels of
trust in Mr Chen.

The United States wants to give him the benefit of the doubt, taking him at his word that he will not touch the sovereignty issue when he holds a referendum in 2006.

So, to Washington, whether Mr Chen's ruling camp wins a majority in the legislature or not will not have a big impact on cross-strait ties.

But Beijing believes the polls could mark a watershed in Taiwan's political reality.

If Mr Chen's party and its allies win a majority, China will become the sole force opposing separatism. Having China involved in such a way is dangerous. It has warned the island against underestimating its determination to crush its separatist dreams.

Meanwhile, the Pan-Green camp appears to be not too far away from the magic figure of 113 required to control the legislature.

In the past four years, the President has systematically pursued a policy of stripping the island of its Chineseness. This is likely to entice some Pan-Blue supporters to defect to Pan-Green candidates as well as squeeze the political space of the non-partisan independents.

TSU, an outfit of former president Lee Teng-hui, owes its phenomenal growth to this trend, and is set to increase its
contribution this time.

Most conservative estimates put its gain at 22 seats, up from its current 13.

Taiwanese political scientists used to say that voters in Taiwan are sensible enough to be able to strike, albeit subconsciously, a balance between different parties.

Based on this theory, when the Pan-Green wins in the executive, the Pan-Blue will win in the legislature, and vice-versa.

But this time, all odds suggest that the theory itself will be invalidated.