THE opposition Pan-Blue alliance's win in Saturday's legislative election has reduced the risk of conflict with China over Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's plans to revise the island's Constitution in 2006.

The respite is certainly welcomed by many, not just in Taiwan but also China and neighbouring countries, after months of rising tension.

With the pan-Blue parties retaining control of the legislature, although with only a slim majority, they can block moves by Mr Chen to push his independence agenda.

But while the immediate danger is removed, there is no indication yet that cross-strait relations will improve in the coming year.

This was the reading by Chinese and Taiwanese experts of the impact the legislative election would have on cross-strait
relations, at a seminar yesterday.

China views Taiwan as a renegade province and so considers Mr Chen's plan to devise a new Constitution in 2006 and implement it in 2008 as a move towards de jure independence.

Mr Chen further angered Beijing by vowing to increase the use of"" Taiwan'' and drop ""China'' from the names of government-run companies and overseas missions, to foster a Taiwanese identity.

Tension has been growing because Beijing has warned Taiwan's leaders that it would crush any move to declare independence.

""Before Saturday's election, Beijing was gravely concerned that it might be forced to do so, if there was no countervailing force in Taiwan to stop Mr Chen,'' said Mr Li Fan, a research fellow at The World and China Institute, a private think-tank in Beijing. With the Pan-Blue alliance, led by the Kuomintang (KMT), in control of the law-making body, it will be almost impossible for Mr Chen to push for a new Constitution.

A constitutional change requires the backing of two-thirds of the legislature.

While there is still no official reaction from Beijing, an American State Department spokesman welcomed the election outcome, Taiwan's United Daily News reported.

Dr Michael Hsiao, a national policy adviser to President Chen, said yesterday the election result would allow both Beijing and Washington to breathe a little easier.

The Chinese would feel less hard-pressed to contain Taiwan while the Americans need not fear the situation will spin out of control, making it necessary for Washington to get involved.

He also pointed out that Mr Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) failed to gain more ground, while the KMT did not crumble as many had expected.

The DPP won 89 seats, two more than before, while the KMT gained 11 seats for a total of 79. Another two seats were won by KMT members who ran as independents.

With the check-and-balance structure largely unchanged, the status quo would prevail, at least in the medium term, said Dr
Hsiao. ""Why don't we start from this premise and begin to talk?'' he asked.

Yet the experts were all agreed that serious talks were not about to happen. According to Dr Bryan Weng, also a national policy adviser to the President, the election result might rekindle Beijing's hopes that it could rely on the Taiwanese people to put the brakes on the DPP and its pro-independence allies in the Pan-Green camp.

If so, Beijing would not agree to any talks with Mr Chen, whom it distrusts.