RENEWED KMT-CCP TIES MAY BRING STABILITY
(Straits Times 2005-04-02)

THE first handshake between officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) in 56 years may herald a third round of cooperation between these two archrivals. The new cooperation could bring about greater stability in the Taiwan Strait.

KMT vice-chairman Chiang Pin-kung's visit to China, which ended yesterday, marked the formal resumption of ties that had been suspended since 1949.

It is expected to pave the way for a meeting between KMT chairman Lien Chan and CCP general secretary Hu Jintao later this year. China issued an invitation on Thursday for Mr Lien to visit the mainland.

The meeting, when it takes place, will bring the parties' top leaders together for the first time since 1945.

The implications of the rapprochement between the two parties will be enormous, even though the KMT is no longer the ruling party in Taiwan.

In 1979, the CCP proposed to the KMT that they shelve their differences and work for the common goal of peaceful unification through what would have been a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation.

There had been only two such rounds of cooperation in the past 80 years. The first from 1924-27 led to the elimination of feuding warlords who had threatened the country's political unity.

The second from 1936-45 led to the joint resistance effort against the Japanese invasion. But after the two parties split, so
did the country.

When the CCP tried to initiate a third round of cooperation in 1979, the KMT was apprehensive because, without exception, the previous rounds of cooperation had led to a weakening of its own position vis-a-vis the CCP until the KMT was finally driven out of the mainland in 1949. Ironically, it is the KMT that is now calling for a third round of cooperation. And it is doing so to ensure its own survival.

The recent meeting between Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian and opposition People First Party (PFP) chief James Soong, which produced a 10-point consensus barring Mr Chen from declaring de jure independence, showed that the KMT risked being marginalised in Taiwan and becoming irrelevant. The United States, which was behind the Chen-Soong consensus, has clearly abandoned the KMT which, given its historical ties to the mainland, still harbours hopes for
eventual unification.

To reverse this fate, the KMT has to join hands with the CCP to bring about tangible benefits to Taiwan that neither the ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the PFP can achieve. The successful conclusion of an agreement to launch direct charter flights during the Chinese New Year was a political feat for the KMT. It showed that with the CCP's cooperation, it is the ruling DPP, rather than the KMT, that risked being marginalised. The cooperation on the charter flights was a precedent. It meant that cross-strait issues can be successfully settled through non-official channels, bypassing the separatist government loathsome to Beijing. This possibility made President Chen mad and explained why he and
the DPP reacted so strongly over Mr Chiang's trip. Mr Chen feared that the trip would actually bring about a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation that could effectively undercut the government's authority on cross-strait issues. He vowed to bring Mr Chiang and his delegation to court, citing Taiwan's criminal code against treason, should they dare to reach any agreement with Beijing.

From Beijing's point of view, the possibility of a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation leading to unification is remote since the KMT is no longer in power.

Still, closer ties is good for reining in rampant separatism on the island as the exchange could lead to policy goodies to
Taiwanese. The KMT is, after all, still the largest opposition party in Taiwan, and if China wants to build a united front against separatism, it has to rely on the KMT.

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