THE first handshake between officials
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan's
Kuomintang (KMT) in 56 years may herald a third round
of cooperation between these two archrivals. The
new cooperation could bring about greater stability
in the Taiwan Strait.
KMT vice-chairman Chiang Pin-kung's
visit to China, which ended yesterday, marked the
formal resumption of ties that had been suspended
since 1949.
It is expected to pave the way
for a meeting between KMT chairman Lien Chan and
CCP general secretary Hu Jintao later this year.
China issued an invitation on Thursday for Mr Lien
to visit the mainland.
The meeting, when it takes place,
will bring the parties' top leaders together for
the first time since 1945.
The implications of the rapprochement
between the two parties will be enormous, even
though the KMT is no longer the ruling party in
Taiwan.
In 1979, the CCP proposed to the
KMT that they shelve their differences and work
for the common goal of peaceful unification through
what would have been a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation.
There had been only two such rounds
of cooperation in the past 80 years. The first
from 1924-27 led to the elimination of feuding
warlords who had threatened the country's political
unity.
The second from 1936-45 led to
the joint resistance effort against the Japanese
invasion. But after the two parties split, so
did the country.
When the CCP tried to initiate
a third round of cooperation in 1979, the KMT was
apprehensive because, without exception, the previous
rounds of cooperation had led to a weakening of
its own position vis-a-vis the CCP until the KMT
was finally driven out of the mainland in 1949.
Ironically, it is the KMT that is now calling for
a third round of cooperation. And it is doing so
to ensure its own survival.
The recent meeting between Taiwanese
President Chen Shui-bian and opposition People
First Party (PFP) chief James Soong, which produced
a 10-point consensus barring Mr Chen from declaring
de jure independence, showed that the KMT risked
being marginalised in Taiwan and becoming irrelevant.
The United States, which was behind the Chen-Soong
consensus, has clearly abandoned the KMT which,
given its historical ties to the mainland, still
harbours hopes for
eventual unification.
To reverse this fate, the KMT
has to join hands with the CCP to bring about tangible
benefits to Taiwan that neither the ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nor the PFP can achieve. The successful
conclusion of an agreement to launch direct charter flights during the
Chinese New Year was a political feat for the KMT. It showed that with
the CCP's cooperation, it is the ruling DPP, rather than the KMT, that
risked being marginalised. The cooperation on the charter flights was
a precedent. It meant that cross-strait issues can be successfully settled
through non-official channels, bypassing the separatist government loathsome
to Beijing. This possibility made President Chen mad and explained why
he and
the DPP reacted so strongly over Mr Chiang's trip. Mr Chen feared that
the trip would actually bring about a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation
that could effectively undercut the government's authority on cross-strait
issues. He vowed to bring Mr Chiang and his delegation to court, citing
Taiwan's criminal code against treason, should they dare to reach any
agreement with Beijing.
From Beijing's point of view,
the possibility of a third round of KMT-CCP cooperation
leading to unification is remote since the KMT
is no longer in power.
Still, closer ties is good for
reining in rampant separatism on the island as
the exchange could lead to policy goodies to
Taiwanese. The KMT is, after all, still the largest opposition party
in Taiwan, and if China wants to build a united front against separatism,
it has to rely on the KMT.
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